Scenariusze rozwoju i bezpieczeństwa makroekonomicznego państw Inicjatywy Trójmorza od czasu COVID-19

Abstract

The aim of the article is to present the results of research on the effects of the coronavirus COVID-19 on the economies of the Three Seas Initiative countries and to try to answer the question about the future of the Initiative. It was assumed that the development and future of this initiative, which is still shaping its identity, and the possibility of achieving its goals, will depend on the economic possibilities of the states that make it up and the decisions made by the heads of states. The analysis was based on the latest macroeconomic statistical data published by Eurostat and the IMF, concerning: GDP, industrial production, budget deficit, public debt, unemployment and inflation. The article outlines the genesis of the Three Seas Initiative and its goals, in order to explain its essence and assumptions. In order to assess the development possibilities of the Three Seas Initiative countries and forecast their economic security in the context of COVID-19, a simplified forecasting method was used, prepared by a team of researchers in a research grant, consisting in distinguishing global megatrends, the socalled wild cards, weak signals, and based on them, possible scenarios were created. They include a forecast of changes in macroeconomic indicators in the context of megatrends and conclusions on the future of the initiative. The scale of the virus’s destruction and its impact on the macroeconomic security of countries will depend on the number and intensity of successive waves of the pandemic, and on the degree of reveal of unfavourable phenomena (wild cards) and the intensity of phenomena currently observed in the form of weak signals. The political will of the leaders of states and the European Union to respect the debt limits set out in the Maastricht Treaty, as well as the will and real possibilities of launching development investments will also be important.