Scenarios of energy demand and efficiency potential for Bulgaria

Abstract

The paper presents aggregated results on macroeconomic and final energy demand scenarios developed within the Bulgarian Country Study on Greenhouse Gas Emissions Mitigation, supported by US Country Studies Program. The studies in this area cover five main stages: (1) outline of “Basic” and “Energy Efficiency” socio-economic and energy policy scenarios (2) modeling of macroeconomic and sectoral development till 2020; (3) expert assessments on the technological options for energy efficiency increase and GHG mitigation in the production, transport and households and services sectors; (4) bottom-up modeling of final energy demand; (5) estimation of sectoral and overall energy efficiency potential and policy. Within the Bulgarian Country Study, the presented results have served as a basis for the final integration stage “Assessment of the Mitigation Policy and Measures in the Energy System of Bulgaria.”