Modelling the Impact of Nigeria Household Energy Policies on Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions

Abstract

Energy security, environmental degradation, and climate change have become global topics of discussion. In response to these issues, the federal government of Nigeria has developed the National Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Policy (NREEEP). In this policy document, some programs were outlined for the Nigeria household sector. A major initiative in the household energy policies is to incorporate energy efficient appliances in all households by 2030. Here, we use the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning Systems modelling framework to analyse the effect of these policies on final energy demand and CO2 emissions. The paper also goes ahead to look at the knock-on effects if the policies are sustained up to mid-century. Two scenarios are developed; the reference scenario and the energy policy scenario. Our analysis suggests that if the household energy policies are fully implemented, about 61% reduction in energy demand is achievable by 2030 compared to the reference scenario. The study further indicates that the direct total CO2 emissions will increase by around 2.7 times in the energy policy scenario. If the policies are sustained, the ripple effect indicates that by 2050, total household energy demand will reduce by 58% whereas CO2 emissions will increase by 2.4 times compared with the reference case. Our findings indicate that the current household energy policies are not effective from the perspective of climate change mitigation. Hence, complementary policies are recommended.