SCENARIOS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AGRICULTURAL COOPERATIVES IN BULGARIA UNTIL 2027

Abstract

After Bulgaria's integration into the European Union (EU) in 2007, restructuring processes in agricultural cooperatives continue. One of the main statistical categories, providing information on how cooperative structures are changing and what will be the future direction of development, is the production structure. Despite measures to support farmers' incomes under the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) of the EU, the number of agricultural cooperatives is decreasing. The purpose of this article is to forecast the main trends in the development of agricultural cooperatives in Bulgaria until 2027. A linear scenario model is applied and the sensitivity of the selected indicators is identified under certain assumptions about changes in the independent variables. The selection of indicators is based on available statistical information. They are proposed with a view to finding the optimal opportunity provided by the data for their inclusion in the established econometric model and the calculation of forecasts (prospective forecasts of the change in cultivated land and the number of cooperatives). According to the model's estimate, agricultural cooperatives will continue to decline until 2027, despite expectations of an overall increase in the utilized agricultural area, arable land and permanent crops in general. When developing the realistic scenario, the experts assume that at the end of 2027, the land structure and the number of agricultural cooperatives existing until 2020 will be preserved. When constructing the pessimistic and optimistic scenario, it is noticeable that the index's range of variation is within 0.35 to 0.76 compared to the base period. The pessimistic scenario for the future of the vineyards has the highest rating. The average ratings of the three scenarios are average (moderate performance) as follows – pessimistic with 0.50, moderate – 0.46, and the highest rating is the optimistic scenario – 0.54. The forecast is to limit permanently grassed areas. With one of the highest ratings is the pessimistic scenario of the lands with vine plantations, which indicates an expectation to continue the existing trend of decreasing vines. Keywords: scenarios, agricultural cooperatives, Bulgaria JEL: Q13; Q18; R15