Abstract
The dramatic changes in land use are associated with various influencing factors such as socioeconomic, climatic, geophysical and proximity factors. Hence, understanding the driving mechanisms of land use changes is crucial to determine the pattern of future changes in land use. The aim of this study is to project the future land use and land cover changes from 2010 to 2030 in Punjab province under three scenarios: Business-as-Usual scenario (BAU), Rapid Economic Growth scenario (REG) and Coordinated Environmental Sustainability scenario (CES). This article used the previously developed Dynamics of Land System (DLS) model to simulate the land use changes in response to the driving mechanisms. The results indicate that cultivated land and built-up areas would expand while areas of water and grassland would face contraction under all three scenarios. Nevertheless, future land demand varies in different scenarios. Under the CES scenario; forest area would expand in the future while large reduction in unused land would be observed. Under the REG scenario, augmented expansion of built-up areas and drastic decrease in forest areas would be the main features of land use changes. Our findings in the scenario analysis of land use changes can provide a reference case for sustainable land use planning and management in Punjab province.
Highlights
The concerns regarding land use and land cover changes (LULCC) are well recognized worldwide
Cellular automata (CA) models, system dynamics (SD) models, Markov chains, the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-S) model, Multi-Agent System (MAS) models and the Dynamics of Land Systems (DLS) model have been frequently used in simulating the land use changes spatially and temporally [22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29]
Our findings indicate that the study area would experience rapid urbanization in the future with 26,300 hectares in the BAU scenario, 34,900 hectares in the Coordinated Environmental Sustainability (CES) scenario and 70,700 hectares in the rapid economic growth (REG) scenario of mainly cultivated land converted to built-up area over the study period
Summary
The concerns regarding land use and land cover changes (LULCC) are well recognized worldwide. The recently developed DLS model has been regarded as a powerful tool for simulating the dynamics of land use changes This model offers advantages over conventional models due to its comprehensive approach in determining future land demand based on scenario analysis, considering the interaction of driving factors with land uses and adjacent pixels, and simulating the spatio-temporal patterns of all kinds of land use types at regional scale [30,31]. This model has been applied widely in many studies to simulate the dynamics of land systems at different scales [28,29,31,32,33,34,35]. Analyzing the land use changes in Punjab province with the DLS model provides information on the dynamics of land use changes to policy makers and planners for sustainable land use management
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