Scenario planning: managing uncertain futures

Abstract

As a strategy tool, scenario planning is an important component of strategic workforce planning as evaluating the impact of future events is integral to ensuring that an organisation's human resources strategies align with the strategic plan. Used within an integrated health and social care team it was a valuable tool in fostering ‘strategic conversation’, providing an opportunity to transcend professional boundaries, challenge the embedded culture and promote change. Using scenario planning as a precursor to traditional methods enables key uncertainties to be identified. These can be used as sensitivity or ‘what if’ analyses that provide management with information that is useful for quantifying the financial risks or service deficiencies that could occur if any of the anticipated futures materialise. There is greater potential for its use at all levels within health and social care and in particular when planning the future workforce within primary care, where there will be a requirement to respond to a range of variables.