Scenario Planning for Climate Adaptation in Agricultural Systems

Laura Schmitt Olabisi,Anthonia Ifeyinwa Achike,Lenis Saweda O Liverpool-Tasie,Robert Ugochukwu Onyeneke,Stella Nwawulu Chiemela,Onyinye Prince Choko,Adedapo Ayo Aiyeloja

doi:10.3390/agriculture10070274

Laura Schmitt Olabisi, Anthonia Ifeyinwa Achike + Show 5 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture10070274

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Abstract

Effective climate adaptation in sub-Saharan African agriculture will require coordination across multiple scales of governance. Decision-makers from local to national scales will be tasked with planning under conditions of high uncertainty, often with minimal data. Participatory scenario planning is a method for devising adaptation strategies under high uncertainty, and we hypothesized that it could also be used for identifying systemic, inclusive, and transformative adaptation options at the community scale, and for highlighting opportunities for cross-scalar collaboration. We conducted scenario exercises with two communities in southeastern Nigeria that have experienced increasing flooding and other challenges linked to climate variability. Both communities identified drivers of change that intersect with climate, as well as community-scale actions that would improve adaptation to a range of future scenarios. We found evidence that scenario exercises can stimulate communities to develop transformative approaches to climate adaptation that seek to reduce climate risk by creating new systems and processes. We also found that community-identified priorities for strategic action highlight how larger-scale interventions could coordinate with communities to adapt more effectively. Participatory scenario planning is therefore a potentially important tool for adaptation planning in regions in which future conditions are highly uncertain.

Highlights

Agricultural systems in sub-Saharan Africa are expected to be heavily impacted by climate change, but the specific nature of these impacts is highly uncertain due to a lack of data and localized climate modeling [1]
We developed scenarios with community members in southeastern Nigeria to explore potential climate adaptation actions into the mid-term future
Residents of Akpoha acknowledged that future scenarios of flooding and youth empowerment are only partly under the control of the community, being affected by broader global patterns of climate change and economic development

Summary

Introduction

Agricultural systems in sub-Saharan Africa are expected to be heavily impacted by climate change, but the specific nature of these impacts is highly uncertain due to a lack of data and localized climate modeling [1]. In order to increase the adaptive capacity of local communities to respond to these uncertain conditions, new tools are needed. One such tool that has been used for decision-making in highly uncertain conditions is scenario planning [2]. Quantitative climatic and socio-economic modeling tools are used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to develop global scenarios for mitigation and adaptation [4].

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