Scenario forecasting of consumption of main organic livestock products in Ukraine

Abstract

Purpose. The aim of the article is to develop scenarios of consumption of the main types of organic livestock products in Ukraine. These scenarios should include the creation of an effective institutional environment aimed not only at strict quality control, but also at stimulating the modernization of production, the implementation of environmentally friendly technologies and genetic technologies for the production of safe products.
 Methodology / approach. The methodological basis of the study is an integrated (systemic) approach, which allows forecasting more accurately the reproduction of the processes of quality supply of organic livestock products, taking into account the factors that affect it. Methodological aspects of calculations in forecasting the capacity of new segments of the organic market (which replace the market segments of traditional or mass products) are based on criteria of rational consumption, taking into account the influence of such factors: potential of organic livestock production in Ukraine, number of households (consumers), income of households (consumers), differentiation of household incomes (consumers), prices for organic livestock products, prices for livestock products originating from the traditional (mass) sector, consumer confidence in the quality assurance system for livestock products (including state quality control systems), consumer confidence in the organic certification system of livestock products. 
 Results. The main factors influencing the consumption of organic livestock products in Ukraine are identified, among which the main ones are the price and quality of products. The reasons of low rates of production of livestock products development with protected geographical names and organic products in Ukraine are described. In particular, it is substantiated that due to the high cost, complexity of production technologies, high cost of certification, the long transition period to organic production, the production of organic livestock products does not reach potential. 
 Originality / scientific novelty. The forecasting of the capacity of the organic sector is made under the conditions of partial or complex implementation of measures aimed at improving the quality of livestock products with the definition of inertial, innovative and systemic scenarios. The authors identified the system scenario as a priority. According to the systemic variant in Ukraine for the period up to 2025 the forecasted capacity of the internal market for organic meat and meat products (in terms of meat) will amount to 3.26 bln UAH; organic milk, dairy products and butter (in terms of milk) will amount to 2.65 bln UAH; organic eggs will amount to 0.47 bln UAH. In general, the market potential capacity of the main types of organic livestock products (at prices in 2019) will be 6.38 bln UAH (0.2 bln Euro) or 151.9 UAH (4.9 Euro) per one person. This is much less than the current European figure of 50 euros per person. In the potential consumer market, the share of organic livestock products in accordance with the systemic version of the solution of the quality problem will be from 1.6 % (meat and meat products) and 1.5 % (milk and dairy products) to 2.3 % (eggs), which is much lower than European indicators.
 Practical value / implications. Scenario forecasting of the dynamics of potential demand for organic livestock products allows understanding the pace of development of the domestic market of organic products, justification of measures and tools to stimulate domestic organic production, determining the impact of these measures on the capacity of the organic market. Otherwise, a significant market share of organic livestock products and food products of animal origin, including milk and dairy products, will be filled by imported products of European producers. The authors identified as a priority systemic scenario for the development of consumption of the main types of organic livestock products in Ukraine.