Abstract
Seismic hazard analysis is carried out in this study by estimating ground motion for hypothetical earthquakes in the area of Muzaffarabad, Pakistan, with the MT solution of the 2005 Kashmir earthquake. The earth’s topography influences seismic waves by scattering and reflecting it, thereby causing spatial variation in seismic response. Using the moment tensor solution of the 2005 Kashmir earthquake, we perform 25 spectral element method (SEM)-based 3D simulations along major faults in the study area. The SEM model incorporates the topography and homogeneous half-space characteristics. Our results show that, beside topography, the relative location of the source with respect to slopes also has an influence on the observed variation in ground shaking amplitudes. By integrating the mean and standard deviation of estimated ground shaking from 25 simulations, we present a seismic hazard map for the study area. The map summarizes the topographic and potential source location effect on seismic-induced ground shaking in the study area. It provides a classification from hazardous to safe in relative terms and can be used as a guide in earthquake preparedness.
Highlights
Seismic hazard studies on a regional scale are carried out using either a deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) or probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) approach
25 simulations are carried out (Fig. 2), in which the Moment tensor (MT) solution of the 2005 Kashmir earthquake moves from its actual position to imaginary positions along major faults in the region (Fig. 1)
The peak ground displacement (PGD) amplitude decreases with increasing distance from the MT solution (Fig. 2), except for places where topographicamplification occurs
Summary
Seismic hazard studies on a regional scale are carried out using either a deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) or probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) approach. DSHA considers a worst-case scenario for a particular seismic source, referred as the. PSHA considers the likelihood of various earthquakes from multiple potential seismic sources, each having a range of uncertainty in source characteristics (e.g., rupture length, distance, fault dip, maximum magnitude, slip rate) (Abrahamson 2000; Bommer 2002). Deterministic earthquake ground motion simulation is a common technique for estimating seismic-induced ground shaking (Wang 2015). Deterministic scenarios are useful for simulating worst-case events that could affect an area (McGuire 2001). An example is the Great Southern California ShakeOut, in which an M 7.8 scenario earthquake, rupturing the southern segment of the San Andreas Fault, was simulated (Bielak et al 2010). Other examples are the simulation of scenario earthquakes along the Central Marmara Fault (CMF) and North Boundary Fault (NBF) in Turkey (Pulido et al 2004), and the simulation of an Mw 6 scenario earthquake in the Grenoble Valley (France) by Stupazzini et al (2009)
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