Scenario-based modelling of changes in chemical intake fraction in Sweden and the Baltic Sea under global change

Abstract

The climate in Europe is warming twice as fast as it is across the rest of the globe, and in Sweden annual mean temperatures are forecast to increase by up to 3–6 °C by 2100, with increasing frequency and magnitude of floods, heatwaves, and other extreme weather. These climate change-related environmental factors and the response of humans at the individual and collective level will affect the mobilization and transport of and human exposure to chemical pollutants in the environment. We conducted a literature review of possible future impacts of global change in response to a changing climate on chemical pollutants in the environment and human exposure, with a focus on drivers of change in exposure of the Swedish population to chemicals in the indoor and outdoor environment. Based on the literature review, we formulated three alternative exposure scenarios that are inspired by three of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). We then conducted scenario-based exposure modelling of the >3000 organic chemicals in the USEtox® 2.0 chemical library, and further selected three chemicals (terbuthylazine, benzo[a]pyrene, PCB-155) from the USEtox library that are archetypical pollutants of drinking water and food as illustrative examples. We focus our modelling on changes in the population intake fraction of chemicals, which is calculated as the fraction of a chemical emitted to the environment that is ingested via food uptake or inhaled by the Swedish population. Our results demonstrate that changes of intake fractions of chemicals are possible by up to twofold increases or decreases under different development scenarios. Changes in intake fraction in the most optimistic SSP1 scenario are mostly attributable to a shift by the population towards a more plant-based diet, while changes in the pessimistic SSP5 scenario are driven by environmental changes such as rain fall and runoff rates.