Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to substantiate the optimal scenario to develop agriculture for the effective diversification of the Azerbaijani economy. By constructing an intersectoral balance model and using regression analysis, we propose the approach for determining optimal agriculture development scenarios taking into account the current development trends of the industry: innovative, inertial, and balanced. Using the balance model helps to account for the cause-and-effect relationships between the indicators of the development of all sectors of the Azerbaijani economy and comprehensively assess the impact of agricultural development on the diversification of the national economy. In contrast to the classical balance model, the modified model proposed in our article provides possibilities to assess not just the production potential of industries but also their contribution to the formation of the country's GDP and diversification of the economy on the way to neutralizing oil dependence.
Highlights
IntroductionA feature of the modern economy of Azerbaijan is its considerable dependence on the oil industry, which provides a significant part of the Republic's GDP production but with a low level of employment in the energy sector of the economy
Crucial features of the development of the modern economy in AzerbaijanA feature of the modern economy of Azerbaijan is its considerable dependence on the oil industry, which provides a significant part of the Republic's GDP production but with a low level of employment in the energy sector of the economy
To determine the most effective scenario for the development of agriculture in Azerbaijan to ensure the diversification of the national economy, we used the balance model of V
Summary
A feature of the modern economy of Azerbaijan is its considerable dependence on the oil industry, which provides a significant part of the Republic's GDP production but with a low level of employment in the energy sector of the economy. In the case of Azerbaijan, the long-term dependence of the national economy on the energy sector over the past 20 years has led to epochal economic and political centralization and constantly increasing corruption in the country due to the redistribution of oil capital. For Azerbaijan, the consequence of these trends would be a continued reduction in state budget revenues, and in the absence of an attempt to effectively diversify the national economy, we can soon foresee an economic depression or even a collapse. Considering, the potential collapse of the country's economy and the modern trends of its development, there is an urgent need to revive Azerbaijan’s agricultural sector
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