Abstract
Scenario analysis of ecosystem services (ES) can provide a scientific basis for ecosystem management. The objective of this study was to reveal the effects of future land use scenarios on ES in a mountain-oasis-desert system (MODS). We first simulated land use changes for the period of 2015–2035 in Altay Prefecture under three different scenarios: business as usual (BAU), economic development (ED), and ecological conservation (EC). We then evaluated water yield (WY), crop production (CP), soil conservation (SC), sand fixation (SF), carbon sequestration (CS), and aesthetic value (AV) and investigated the multiple interactions among ES at the regional and grid scales. The results showed that SC, CS, and AV continually increased, WY continually decreased under the three scenarios. Our study revealed that the multiple interactions among ES were spatially heterogeneous in the MODS and the spatial heterogeneities changed across scenarios. The locations of and causes for the formation of the multiple interactions among ES were identified based on spatial analysis. This information can help decision-makers develop targeted and differentiated ecosystem management strategies. This study can increase the understanding of the multiple interactions among ES. Our findings can provide a reference for studies of other regions with the MODS structure.
Highlights
Scenario analysis of ecosystem services (ES) can provide a scientific basis for ecosystem management
By comparing the simulated values with the actual values of land use types in 2015, we found that the built-up area had the largest error (−1.02%), whereas the errors for the other land use types were all less than 1%
The results showed that soil conservation (SC), carbon sequestration (CS), and aesthetic value (AV) continually increased, water yield (WY) continually decreased under the three scenarios
Summary
Scenario analysis of ecosystem services (ES) can provide a scientific basis for ecosystem management. The locations of and causes for the formation of the multiple interactions among ES were identified based on spatial analysis This information can help decision-makers develop targeted and differentiated ecosystem management strategies. Noticeable trade-offs have been found between food production and water quality regulation in the Great Barrier Reef, Australia[21] Another example in Beijing, China has found that food provision has negative correlations with carbon storage, water purification and habitat provision[22]. The interactions among ES can differ between different regions because of landscape heterogeneity across the regions and the distinct ecosystem management strategies of the regions (e.g. a trade-off between food production and carbon stocks are identified in the Sanjiang Plain of China[24], while a synergy between these two services is found in the Loess Plateau of China[25]). The uncertainties in ES assessment may lead to different results in the study of ES interactions[26]
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