Simulating the Impact of Future Climate Change and Ecological Restoration on Trade-Offs and Synergies of Ecosystem Services in Two Ecological Shelters and Three Belts in China.

Liang-Jie Wang,Jin-Chi Zhang,Yong-Peng Qiao,Shuai Ma

doi:10.3390/ijerph17217849

Abstract

Development of suitable ecological protection and restoration policies for sustainable management needs to assess the potential impacts of future land use and climate change on ecosystem services. The two ecological shelters and three belts (TSTB) are significant for improving ecosystem services and ensuring China’s and global ecological security. In this study, we simulated land use in 2050 and estimated the spatial distribution pattern of net primary productivity (NPP), water yield, and soil conservation from 2010 to 2050 under future climate change. The results showed that water yield, NPP, and soil conservation exhibited a spatial pattern of decreasing from southeast to northwest, while in terms of the temporal pattern, water yield and NPP increased, but soil conservation decreased. Water yield was mainly influenced by precipitation, NPP was affected by temperature and implementation of ecological restoration, and soil conservation was controlled by precipitation and slope. There was a strong spatial heterogeneity between trade-offs and synergies. In terms of the temporal, with the combination of climate change and ecological restoration, there was a synergistic relationship between water yield and NPP. However, the relationships between water yield and soil conservation, and between NPP and soil conservation were characterized by trade-offs. In the process of ecological construction, it is necessary to consider the differences between overall and local trade-offs and synergies, as well as formulate sustainable ecological management policies according to local conditions. Understanding the response of ecosystem services to future climate change and land use policies can help address the challenges posed by climate change and achieve sustainable management of natural resources.

Highlights

Ecosystem services are the benefits that ecosystems provide to sustain human existence and development, thereby linking the natural environment and human well-being together [1,2]
Grassland and other land were mainly distributed in the Tibet Plateau ecological shelter (TPES) and northern sand prevention belt (NSPB), while forestland and farmland were mainly concentrated in the northeast forest belt (NEFB), CLPS, and southern hill and mountain belt (SHMB)
In terms of temporal variation, with the combination of climate change and ecological restoration, there was a synergistic relationship between water yield and net primary productivity (NPP), and the relationships between water yield and soil conservation and between NPP and soil conservation were characterized by trade-offs

Summary

Introduction

Ecosystem services are the benefits that ecosystems provide to sustain human existence and development, thereby linking the natural environment and human well-being together [1,2]. The study of ecosystem service trade-offs and synergies has attracted the attention of policy makers [3,4,5]. Trade-offs are defined as the increase in one or more ecosystem services at the expense of other ecosystem services, while synergies refer to the simultaneous increase or decrease in two or more ecosystem services [6,7]. Quantifying ecosystem services and revealing their relationships are beneficial. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 7849; doi:10.3390/ijerph17217849 www.mdpi.com/journal/ijerph

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Discussion

Conclusion