Scenario Analysis of Agricultural Ecological Compensation in Henan Province from the Perspective of Fiscal Expenditure

Abstract

At present, the main sources of agricultural ecological compensation funds in China are central financial transfer payments and special funds, while local government funds are auxiliary sources. Compensation methods are mainly implemented by specific means such as government financial transfer payments and financial subsidies. Taking Henan Province as an example, based on the perspective of fiscal expenditure, this paper takes agricultural ecological compensation as the research object, and sets benchmark scenarios and development scenarios from near and far periods to predict the government's affordability. According to the GDP, population, fiscal revenue, general public budget expenditure and agricultural expenditure of the whole province, it is predicted that the fiscal expenditure pressure of agricultural ecological compensation will not increase greatly from 2023 to 2027, but with the development of social economy, the fiscal expenditure pressure of agricultural ecological compensation will be higher from 2028 to 2037. Facing this problem, this paper proposes a solution to the financial binding force.