Scenario Analysis and Path Selection of Low-Carbon Transformation in China Based on a Modified IPAT Model

Liang Chen,Bin Chen,Zhifeng Yang,Ben Bond-Lamberty

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0077699

Abstract

This paper presents a forecast and analysis of population, economic development, energy consumption and CO2 emissions variation in China in the short- and long-term steps before 2020 with 2007 as the base year. The widely applied IPAT model, which is the basis for calculations, projections, and scenarios of greenhouse gases (GHGs) reformulated as the Kaya equation, is extended to analyze and predict the relations between human activities and the environment. Four scenarios of CO2 emissions are used including business as usual (BAU), energy efficiency improvement scenario (EEI), low carbon scenario (LC) and enhanced low carbon scenario (ELC). The results show that carbon intensity will be reduced by 40–45% as scheduled and economic growth rate will be 6% in China under LC scenario by 2020. The LC scenario, as the most appropriate and the most feasible scheme for China’s low-carbon development in the future, can maximize the harmonious development of economy, society, energy and environmental systems. Assuming China's development follows the LC scenario, the paper further gives four paths of low-carbon transformation in China: technological innovation, industrial structure optimization, energy structure optimization and policy guidance.

Highlights

As mutual challenges for human society, the climate warming caused by human activities and possible catastrophic results have been highly recognized all over the world
The IPAT model was reformulated as the ‘‘Kaya identity’’ [32], which is the basis for calculations, projections, and scenarios of greenhouse gases (GHGs) implemented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1996 [33]
Besides China’s mitigation target of 40%–45% reduction of CO2 emission intensity by 2020, there is a goal of increasing the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 15% by 2020 compared with the 2005 level [7], the GDP growth rate of 6% was assumed according to economic development target until 2015 in China’s 12th Five-Year Plan [48]

Summary

Introduction

As mutual challenges for human society, the climate warming caused by human activities and possible catastrophic results have been highly recognized all over the world. Reduced greenhouse gas emissions for low-carbon development may be the new standard for all countries and may restrict relevant economic and political activities. It is quite notable that almost every country has begun to study future greenhouse gas emission and mitigation options with greater zeal in preparation for approaching international negotiations. This has especially been the case in China. As the largest developing country, China’s energy consumption and CO2 emissions increased sharply along with the rapid economic growth over the years [1,2,3]. From 1990 and 2010 China’s total energy consumption has increased 5.7% annually, and CO2 emissions grew by nearly 2.5 times [4]. In 2007, the total CO2 emission from fossil fuel consumption in China exceeded that of the United States, which made China the world’s largest CO2 emitter [5,6]

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