The Scenario Analysis of Low-Carbon Development on the Basis of Improved IPAT Model in China

Abstract

It is an important strategic choice for countries to develop low-carbon economy while dealing with climate change. The paper gives a forecast and analysis on population, economic development, technology, energy consumption and CO2 emissions variation in China before 2020 as setting the year 2007 as the base year by using IPAT model. Three scenarios of CO2 emissions are set including business as usual (BAU), energy efficiency improvement scenario (EEI), and low carbon scenario (LC). The result shows that the LC scenario is the most appropriate and the most feasible scenario for China to achieve the low-carbon development in the future. Assuming that China’s future development follows the LC scenario, we give three suggestions of low-carbon transformation in China: technological innovation, energy structure optimization and policy advice.