Abstract
<p>The objective of this paper is to propose the application of the SARX model to arrive at industrial power consumption forecasts in Brazil, which are critical to support decisionmaking in the energy sector, based on technical, economic and environmentally sustainable grounds. The proposed model has a seasonal component and considers the influence of exogenous variables on the projection of the dependent variable and utilizes an autoregressive process for residual modeling so as to improve its explanatory power. Five exogenous variables were included: industrial capacity utilization, industrial electricity tariff, industrial real revenues, exchange rate, and machinery and equipment inflation. In addition, the model assumed that power forecast was dependent on its own time lags and also on a dummy variable to reflect 2009 economic crisis. The study used 84 monthly observations, from January 2003 to December 2009. The backward method was used to select exogenous variables, assuming a 0.10 descriptive value. The results showed an adjusted coefficient of determination of 93.9% and all the estimated coefficients were statistically significant at a 0.10 descriptive level. Forecasts were also made from January to May 2010 at a 95% confidence interval, which included actual consumption values for this period. The SARX model has demonstrated an excellent performance for industrial power consumption forecasting in Brazil.</p>
Highlights
Decision making in the energy sector and its effect on the development of Brazilian infrastructure relies heavily on accurate forecasts of demand
According to Miranda (2009), the very short term forecast, which involves high frequency data, is essential for the reliability and efficient operation of the power sector, allowing the supply to be allocated efficiently, in addition to identifying potential distortions in the upcoming periods. When it comes to generating power, Brazil stands out on the global stage as hydroelectric power represents 79.6% of its total installed capacity, while 12.8% of the total capacity comes from fossil fuels, according to EPE’ 10-Year Energy Plan for 2008-2017 (2009)
This influence was represented in this work by five exogenous variables, namely industrial capacity utilization, industrial electricity tariff at December 2009 prices, industry revenues, exchange rate, and machinery and equipment inflation
Summary
Decision making in the energy sector and its effect on the development of Brazilian infrastructure relies heavily on accurate forecasts of demand. According to Miranda (2009), the very short term forecast, which involves high frequency data, is essential for the reliability and efficient operation of the power sector, allowing the supply to be allocated efficiently, in addition to identifying potential distortions in the upcoming periods (days, hours or fractions of hours). When it comes to generating power, Brazil stands out on the global stage as hydroelectric power represents 79.6% of its total installed capacity, while 12.8% of the total capacity comes from fossil fuels, according to EPE’ 10-Year Energy Plan for 2008-2017 (2009). Reveals Goldenberg (2004), approximately 80% of all the energy consumed around the world comes from fossil fuels and petroleum derivatives
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