SARS-CoV-2 phase I transmission and mutability linked to the interplay of climatic variables: a global observation on the pandemic spread.

Chidambaram Sabarathinam,Prosun Bhattacharya,Prasanna Mohan Viswanathan,Ramanathan Alagappan,Venkatramanan Senapathi,Shankar Karuppannan,Dhanu Radha Samayamanthula,Gnanachandrasamy Gopalakrishnan

doi:10.1007/s11356-021-17481-8

Abstract

The study aims to determine the impact of global meteorological parameters on SARS-COV-2, including population density and initiation of lockdown in twelve different countries. The daily trend of these parameters and COVID-19 variables from February 15th to April 25th, 2020, were considered. Asian countries show an increasing trend between infection rate and population density. A direct relationship between the time-lapse of the first infected case and the period of suspension of movement controls the transmissivity of COVID-19 in Asian countries. The increase in temperature has led to an increase in COVID-19 spread, while the decrease in humidity is consistent with the trend in daily deaths during the peak of the pandemic in European countries. Countries with 65°F temperature and 5 mm rainfall have a negative impact on COVID-19 spread. Lower oxygen availability in the atmosphere, fine droplets of submicron size together with infectious aerosols, and low wind speed have contributed to the increase in total cases and mortality in Germany and France. The onset of the D614G mutation and subsequent changes to D614 before March, later G614 in mid-March, and S943P, A831V, D839/Y/N/E in April were observed in Asian and European countries. The results of the correlation and factor analysis show that the COVID-19 cases and the climatic factors are significantly correlated with each other. The optimum meteorological conditions for the prevalence of G614 were identified. It was observed that the complex interaction of global meteorological factors and changes in the mutational form of CoV-2 phase I influenced the daily mortality rate along with other comorbid factors. The results of this study could help the public and policymakers to create awareness of the COVID-19 pandemic.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11356-021-17481-8.

Highlights

The COVID-19 pandemic is triggering a crisis that challenges the governments and health care around the world
The pandemic spread has not reflected any positive relation to population density in the western countries though the cases increased with density in Asian countries
It could be more generalized that the pandemic spread in the Asian countries are more influenced by the decrease in humidity though an increase of temperature played a key role irrespective of the geographical distribution; still, the interplay of multiple factors was more observed in the Asian countries

Summary

Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic is triggering a crisis that challenges the governments and health care around the world. Few authors (Ma et al 2020; Poole 2020; Sajadi et al 2020 and Wang et al 2020) have reported that climate indicators such as temperature and humidity influence the seasonal spread of corona viruses and even affect the mortality rate. A study of temperature fluctuations in 30 East Asian cities reported respiratory and cardiovascular diseases with an impact of high mortality rates (Kim et al 2017). People are more likely to stay indoors during winter, which leads to a decrease in vitamin D levels, thereby lowering immunity. Such conditions may stimulate the infection rate. Later studies confirmed that the impact of climatic factors on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 seems plausible (Chen et al 2021)

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion