Abstract

The purpose of this research is to empirically test the salmon bias hypothesis, which states that the “healthy migrant” effect—referring to a situation in which migrants enjoy lower mortality risks than natives—is caused by selective return-migration of the weak, sick, and elderly. Using a unique longitudinal micro-level database—the Historical Sample of the Netherlands—we tracked the life courses of internal migrants after they had left the city of Rotterdam, which allowed us to compare mortality risks of stayers, returnees, and movers using survival analysis for the study group as a whole, and also for men and women separately. Although migrants who stayed in the receiving society had significantly higher mortality risks than natives, no significant difference was found for migrants who returned to their municipality of birth (returnees). By contrast, migrants who left for another destination (movers) had much lower mortality risks than natives. Natives who left Rotterdam also had significantly lower mortality risks than natives who stayed in Rotterdam. Female migrants, in particular, who stayed in the receiving urban society paid a long-term health price. In the case of Rotterdam, the salmon bias hypothesis can be rejected because the lower mortality effect among migrants was not caused by selective return-migration. The healthy migrant effect is real and due to a positive selection effect: Healthier people are more likely to migrate.

Highlights

  • In this paper we test the salmon bias hypothesis for internal migrants, both men and women, in Rotterdam during the latter half of the nineteenth and the early twentieth centuries by systematically comparing mortality risks among stayers and leavers, subdividing the latter category into returnees (migrants who return to their municipality of birth) and movers (migrants who moved to another destination than their municipality of birth)

  • In this paper we test the salmon bias hypothesis for internal migrants, both men and women, in Rotterdam during the latter half of the nineteenth and the early twentieth centuries by systematically comparing mortality risks among stayers and leavers, subdividing the latter category into returnees and movers

  • First in a previous study (Puschmann et al 2016) comparing adult mortality risks among migrants and natives in Antwerp, Rotterdam, and Stockholm (1850–1930), we found that the healthy migrant effect was strong among internal migrants who moved to Rotterdam

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Summary

Introduction

In this paper we test the salmon bias hypothesis for internal migrants, both men and women, in Rotterdam during the latter half of the nineteenth and the early twentieth centuries by systematically comparing mortality risks among stayers and leavers, subdividing the latter category into returnees (migrants who return to their municipality of birth) and movers (migrants who moved to another destination than their municipality of birth). We compare the mortality risks of three different groups of migrants— stayers, returnees, and movers—with that of the native population in order to determine if the observed healthy migrant effect was a result of selective out-migration.

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