Abstract
The risk of slope failure is determined by the degree of damage caused by the slope slide. For the special‐high slope of some high‐risk water conservancy and hydropower projects, the standard should be appropriately raised. Thus, the safety standard for these slopes is explored on the basis of reliability analysis. The slopes with high risk of failure are divided into special class I and special class II slopes depending on the risk levels and acceptable risk standards. The concept of reliability theory‐based relative ratio of the safety margin is utilized to establish the relationship between annual failure probability and safety factor, thereby obtaining the reasonable safety factors for different slopes. Results show that the values of safety factors for special class I and special class II are 1.40 and 1.35, respectively. These results can provide a reference for exploring the safety standards of dams with a height of more than 200 m.
Highlights
Geological disasters in the reservoir area are mainly manifested as natural disasters such as landslides and debris flows, which can directly lead to the instability of the bank slope of the reservoir, causing damage to water conservancy projects and eventually cause huge economic losses [1, 2].e class of the slope of the water conservancy and hydropower project shall be divided according to the location of the slope, importance of the slope, and degree of damage
DelgadoHernandez et al [17] and Peyras et al [18] explored risk assessment of earth dams based on a continuous Bayesian network; Chen et al [19]optimized the point estimation method, solved the problem that a large amount of storage space is needed in the calculation process, and applied the point estimation method to embankment slope stability reliability analysis
Li et al [22] and Zhou et al [23] investigated dams’ risk acceptance criteria and risk classification. e authors of this paper have used the theory of relative ratio of safety margin to study the safety standard for slopes of ultrahigh earth and rockfill dams in China [24]
Summary
Geological disasters in the reservoir area are mainly manifested as natural disasters such as landslides and debris flows, which can directly lead to the instability of the bank slope of the reservoir, causing damage to water conservancy projects and eventually cause huge economic losses [1, 2]. We suggested that the failure probabilities of special class I and special class II slopes are 10−5 and 5 × 10−5, respectively Based on these acceptable risk standards, this paper studies the safety standard of the high slope in water conservancy and hydropower project and verifies the rationality of the proposed standard. Based on the summarization and analysis of the slope risks of the regions and countries mentioned above and considering the risk standards adopted in other countries and China’s economic development level, this study proposes that the acceptable risk of China’s natural and engineering slopes in water conservancy and hydropower project, that is, yearly failure probability, should be set at 10−5−10−6.
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
