Safety evaluation of human-caused errors in civil aviation based on analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method

Abstract

PurposeAt present, the statistics of human error events in domestic civil aviation are limited, and the analysis indicators are difficult to quantify. The purpose of this study is to reduce the incidence of human error events and improve the safety of civil aviation.Design/methodology/approachIn this paper, a safety prevention evaluation method combining analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) is proposed. The risk factors of civil aviation safety are identified through questionnaire survey and calculated by MATLAB software.FindingsThe results of the study are as follows: a safety risk evaluation index system including 4 first-level indicators and 16 second-level indicators is constructed; the AHP is used to calculate the weight of the influencing factors of human error and sort them; and the FCE method is used to quantitatively evaluate the safety prevention of civil aviation human error and put forward the countermeasures.Research limitations/implicationsThis study also has some limitations. While it provides an overall quantitative identification of civil aviation safety risk factors, the research methods chosen, such as the questionnaire survey method and the AHP, involve individual subjectivity. Consequently, the research results may have errors. In the preliminary preparation of the follow-up study, we should analyze a large number of civil aviation accident investigation reports, more accurately clarify the human error factors and completely adopt the quantitative analysis method in the research method.Practical implicationsThis study identifies the risk factors of civil aviation safety and conducts a reasonable analysis of human error factors. In the daily training of civil aviation, the training can be focused on previous man-made accidents; in view of the “important” influencing factors, the aviation management system is formulated to effectively improve the reliability of aviation staff; according to the evaluation criteria of human error in civil aviation, measures to prevent and control accidents can be better formulated.Social implicationsIn view of these four kinds of influencing factors, the corresponding countermeasures and preventive measures are taken according to the discussion, so as to provide the basis for the prevention of aviation human error analysis, management and decision-making, prevent the risk from brewing into safety accidents and improve the safety of aviation management.Originality/valueBased on the questionnaire survey, this study creatively applies the safety prevention evaluation method combining AHP and FCE to the study of civil aviation human error, integrates the advantages of qualitative and quantitative methods, flexibly designs qualitative problems, objectively quantifies research results and reduces subjective variables. Then, by discussing civil aviation safety management measures to avoid risk factors, reduce the incidence of human error events and improve the safety of civil aviation.