Abstract
The present study aims to conduct a quantitative evaluation of evacuation route safety using the Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) algorithm for risk management in central Tokyo. Firstly, the similarity in safety was focused on while taking into consideration road blockage probability. Then, by classifying roads by means of the hierarchical cluster analysis, the congestion rates of evacuation routes using ACO simulations were estimated. Based on these results, the multiple evacuation routes extracted were visualized on digital maps by means of Geographic Information Systems (GIS), and their safety was evaluated. Furthermore, the selection of safe evacuation routes between evacuation sites for cases when the possibility of large-scale evacuation after an earthquake disaster is high is made possible. As the evaluation method is based on public information, by obtaining the same geographic information as the present study, it is effective in other areas, regardless of whether the information is from the past or future. Therefore, in addition to spatial reproducibility, the evaluation method also has high temporal reproducibility. Because safety evaluations are conducted on evacuation routes based on quantified data, the selected highly safe evacuation routes have been quantitatively evaluated, and thus serve as an effective indicator when selecting evacuation routes.
Highlights
From the experiences gained through the Great Hanshin Earthquake (1995) as well as the Great East Japan Earthquake (2011), in recent years, Japan has focused on disaster reduction by means of self and mutual help
Based on the backdrop mentioned above, assuming a large-scale evacuation in the case of an earthquake disaster, the present study aims to conduct a quantitative evaluation of safety concerning evacuation routes using the Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) algorithm for risk management in central Tokyo
The multiple evacuation routes extracted were visualized on digital maps by means of Geographic Information Systems (GIS), and their safety was evaluated
Summary
From the experiences gained through the Great Hanshin Earthquake (1995) as well as the Great East Japan Earthquake (2011), in recent years, Japan has focused on disaster reduction by means of self and mutual help. If an earthquake disaster occurs during a big event, such as the Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics, which will be held in Japan in 2020, busy urban areas especially around stadiums are expected to be crowded with evacuees. In such cases, it is necessary to put an emphasis on how to reduce damage for risk management in central Tokyo. Current efforts to develop such evacuation plans by means of self and mutual help include activities such as walking the streets for disaster prevention and disaster drills using maps; an example of the latter is Disaster Imagination Game (DIG), which was created by Komura and Hirano (1997). The evacuation plans developed in the way described above may be influenced by the developers’ subjective thinking, and its practicability remains uncertain
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
