Safety Analysis of Uncontained Rotor Failure Based on Bayesian Network

Abstract

During the process of airworthiness certification of the civil aircraft, it is required to show that the probability of catastrophic hazard caused by uncontained rotor failure is lower than the specified standard. This paper sets forth a safety analysis method for uncontained rotor failure to verify whether the damage caused by uncontained rotor failure has been reduced to an acceptable level. A calculation model of minimal cut set trigger probability for multiple failure models is proposed, which can be used to calculate the trigger probability of minimal cut set obtained from qualitative safety analysis; A risk assessment model for uncontained failure based on Bayesian network is constructed, which can not only solve the probability of aircraft catastrophic hazard by forwarding reasoning but also solve the posterior probability of each minimal cut set by reverse reasoning. Finally, an example of safety analysis for uncontained rotor failure is given to show the feasibility of the aforementioned method.