Safeguarding the Nuclear Peace in South Asia

Abstract

In February 1993, CIA Director James Woolsey testified before Congress that the arms race between India and Pakistan represents the most probable prospect for the future use of nuclear weapons. I The history of strained relations between the two countries undoubtedly contributed to this alarming assessment. India and Pakistan have fought three wars against each other since 1947, and miscalculation or misunderstanding between the two almost led to the outbreak of hostilities in 1987 and 1990. Neither country is a party to the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), neither accepts international safeguards over all their nuclear facilities, and both are actively enhancing their ballistic missile-delivery capabilities. Now that each of these countries has the ability, according to Woolsey, to assemble nuclear devices on short notice, the next crisis could very possibly escalate to the nuclear level, with devastating consequences for millions of people in South Asia. While this nuclear capability and history of belligerence would be sufficient cause for concern, it is the deteriorating domestic and regional environment in which this nuclear competition occurs that has made it particularly worrisome. The mixture of rising religious tensions, weak leadership, multiplying domestic burdens, and underdeveloped democratic institutions, coupled with advanced nuclear weapons programs, does not bode well for future peace and stability in South Asia. The potentially