Rüzgar Hızı Değerlendirmesinde İki Parametreli Weibull Dağılımı İçin Üç Parametre Tahmin Metodunun Karşılaştırmalı Performans Analizi

Abstract

The two-parameter Weibull distribution is widely used in the estimation of wind speed. In this paper, some recently proposed parameter estimation methods for the two parameter Weibull distribution have been compared using the wind data from two cities in Turkey. The compared methods in this paper are Wind Energy Intensification Method (WEIM), Energy Pattern Factor Method (EPFM), and Power Density Method (PD). These methods have been compared by checking the fit have provided in the probability-density graph. The comparison has also been made by comparing of efficiencies these methods in predicting wind energy density. Lastly, a comparison has been investigated by using the following performance criteria; Wind Energy Error (WEE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Coefficient of Determination (R2), and the results of error analysis have been compared. According to simulation results, while the EPFM and PD methods have shown a very close fit on the graph; when it comes to calculating wind energy densities, the PD method has shown a significant advantage over other methods. Finally, after the examination of error criteria, it was clear that EPFM has shown accurate performance which is the desired result. The main conclusion is that the accurate method for these selected regions is the EPFM.