Influence of Weibull parameters on the estimation of wind energy potential

Abstract

Wind potential estimation is generally evaluated using two-parameter (k, c) Weibull distribution. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Coefficient of Determination (R2) and Relative Error (RE) are computed in order to comparatively analyse fourteen methods of determining Weibull parameters. They are the Graphical Method, the Standard Deviation Method, the Empirical Method of Justus, the Empirical Method of Lysen, the Energy Pattern Factor Method, the Maximum Likelihood Method, the Modified Maximum Likelihood Method, the Alternative Maximum Likelihood Method, the Least Square Method, the Weighted Least squares Method, the Curve Fitting Method, the Wind Variability Method, the Moroccan Method and the Median and Quartile Method. These methods have been applied on three different windy sites (slightly, moderately and very windy sites) with hourly wind data over a period of 10 years (2005–2014), measured at 10 m height. As a result, compared to the other methods, Energy Pattern Factor method is the more suitable method applicable to assess the Weibull parameters for all wind speeds. However, the values obtained from RMSE, R2 and RE tests revealed that the WVM and MoroM methods are not suitable while all other methods are acceptable for the estimation of k and c. parameters. The determination of the wind power density and the gap between the predicted standard deviation by each method and the measured standard deviation for all the sites highlighted the relevance of EPFM method and the others methods. Moreover, this work reveals that the Weibull shape factor k decrease with height above ground level, while that of the scale factor c increase with height.