Ryzyko kursowe jako przeszkoda w działalności eksportowej. Wnioski z Polski

Abstract

The focus of the paper is on identifying major factors that can determine the vulnerability of Polish manufacturing companies to exchange rate risk. In order to verify our hypotheses, we have estimated logistic regression models based on a unique database to assess internal and external factors that make companies vulnerable to exchange rate risk. Our observations confirm the importance of exchange rate variability as one of the obstacles to starting and conducting export activity as well as expanding it to new markets. We have found that exchange rate risk is particularly severe for companies that are financially constrained and get financing abroad as well as those whose balance sheets are negatively affected by devaluation. Also vulnerable are innovative firms and those that rely more on input imports. Exchange rate volatility appears to be less of a concern for foreign-owned companies and enterprises that have higher shares of euro-denominated receivables and invoice exports in the Polish zloty. Companies competing by means of product quality and distribution channels are also among those less vulnerable to exchange rate risk. Generally, we have confirmed the problem of exchange rate risk as an important cost to export activity. This gives some implications for exchange rate risk management at both the macroeconomic and microeconomic levels as well as for monetary integration.