Russiaʼs Low Carbon Development Policy:Opportunities and Constraints in the New Economicand Political Reality

Abstract

Russia's model of economic development, based on hydrocarbon exports, initially determined the country's scepticism toward low-carbon transformation. However, the growing negative effects of climate change, manifesting in increased natural disasters (floods, fires, extreme heat), as well as extraterritorial measures imposed by major trading partners, which could potentially limit market access, led to a transformation of the perceived climate change challenge and the adoption of a range of policy documents and regulations to articulate and implement a low-carbon development policy in Russia. The targets and measures have been criticized for lacking ambition and rigour, but still pushed the processes without which the economy would continue to face the negative effects of climate change and increasing constraints in global markets. The geopolitical crisis of 2022 and widening sanctions have significantly constrained Russia’s ability to meet climate targets. Despite this, mechanisms to promote decarbonization in key sectors continue to be developed. In addition, opportunities for cooperation with some major non-western economies have not closed. This article analyzes Russia's strategic documents and key low-carbon development policies, including the activities of major companies. It provides perspective on the role of forest climate projects as well as their drawbacks and risks, the Sakhalin experiment to achieve carbon neutrality in the region and how it is implemented through concrete initiatives, the prospects and limitations of the hydrogen industry, the challenges and tools for decarbonizing transport, state of play in the carbon capture, use and storage technologies, the criteria for green projects, and the situation on the green bond market. It also identifies two important areas which gain importance as the climate transition scales up: nuclear power and the extraction and production of critical raw materials. Based on the analysis, recommendations are given on promising areas of cooperation between Russia and its BRICS and EAEU partners.