Russias Economic Situation in 1992

Abstract

Since the year has not yet ended, I shall base my summary of its results on the first seven monthsthe last period for which published data were available at the time this article was written. More detailed calculations are based on the results for the first half-year. It is specifically for this period that there are data on the dynamics of industrial output in physical terms required to calculate the index of the physical volume of industrial outputcalculation of which is the most difficult part of the determination of the national income index. Many other data on economic development are also more completely presented for the first half-year. The transition from the assessment of the results of the first seven months to the totals for the year is based on the identification of economic development trends and a general assessment of the economic policy of the Russian government and the effectiveness (it would be better to say ineffectiveness) of the economic mechanism that formed in that year. The forecast for 1992 is tentative. The final results for the year may be influenced by the severity of the impending winter, by possible change in the economic policy of the government and the Central Bank, by the decision of the International Monetary Fund to allocate $3 billion in reserve credit, and so on. But these changes do not appear to be significant.