Russian-U.S. Nuclear Force Reductions and Nuclear Proliferation

Abstract

Russia and the United States have a special responsibility to connect “vertical” nuclear disarmament and “horizontal” nonproliferation. Russian and American behavior will influence the choices made by nonnuclear states about the decision for a nuclear weapons capability or for the acquisition of a complete nuclear fuel cycle with the potential for weaponization. This study uses an analytical model to examine the stability of a possible future world in which nonproliferation efforts “hold the line” against new nuclear states, while the U.S. and Russia maintain stable deterrence at reduced levels of deployed forces.