Russian Power Generation: Between a Rock and a Hard Place?

Abstract

This paper discusses the recent and future operational performance of the Russian electricity-generation industry, which is central to government plans for industrial regeneration and environmental improvement. The paper commences with information on outputs from the industry, namely current and future production levels, and atmospheric emissions, followed by data on fuel and capacity inputs. Information is then presented to show that the meeting of future output targets may run counter to objectives for reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, in view of the slow replacement of ageing plant and the plans to switch fuel from natural gas back to coal. The paper then discusses the economic and commercial factors influencing the strategic choices available to the Russian power-generation industry and the barriers to the implementation of these alternatives. The conclusion is reached that substantial investment is required in Russian power stations, which may require significant increases in electricity prices with associated economic and social problems for industrial and domestic consumers. The pricing system could also be used to reduce demand to match the capacities of available equipment, but that decision may also give rise to associated economic and social problems.