Russia–EU relations at a crossroads: preventing a new Cold War in a polycentric world

Abstract

In the past year, the Ukrainian crisis has generated an international discussion about a ‘new Cold War’. This article looks into the likelihood of such a scenario and makes suggestions of how it may be precluded. The course of events depends on whether the current model of globalization can be reversed. This would mean not only a change in the current structure of the global economy, but its dismantling. However, it is obvious that for most European and other states, the risks associated with such a policy outweigh potential geopolitical and economic benefits. The international order is in a state of flux. High risks are unacceptable when governments or nations pursue their interests in a stable environment. But when the balance of power shifts substantially, as it has now, the perception of risk threshold also begins to change. European history has shown that large-scale transformations in international relations in most cases triggered tension and violence, caused by rising demands of ascending powers and by resistance of those who were challenged. In the twenty-first century, the polycentric structure of the world provides an opportunity to achieve a new lasting global settlement, and to put an end to the current period of increasing tension.