Russia's Afghanistan Policy: An Irresolute Strategy for an Uncertain Future

Abstract

Russia's policy toward Afghanistan is at a critical juncture. This article aims to explain the evolution of Moscow's policy since 2001, and to assess its future options. The findings of this article are twofold. Moscow attempted to balance two overarching objectives: stabilize Afghanistan and maintain Russia's hegemony in Central Asia. Russian fluctuations toward Afghanistan since 2001 stemmed from changes in its perceived interests and its prioritization of these two objectives. Furthermore, Moscow is becoming increasingly concerned about Afghanistan. However, it has relatively few realistic policy options to address challenges that may develop once international military forces cease major combat operations.