Russia and Missile Defenses

Abstract

Developments in technology and policy have increased Russian interest in ballistic missile defenses. The United States has committed itself to a limited national missile defense program, having begun deployments in 2004. Russia and the United States have also agreed on offensive force reductions according to the Moscow Treaty of 2002. Should Russia deploy defenses reciprocal to those of the United States, and if so, what would be the consequences of that decision? In addition, Russia faces the possibility of additional nuclear proliferation in Asia. A world in which offenses are combined with strategic anti-missile defenses increases, for Russia and for other nuclear states, the complexity of decision making for deterrence and defense in the 21st century. I gratefully acknowledge Dr. James Scouras for use of his AWSM@ model in preparing charts for this study. He is not responsible for the data base, analysis, or conclusions of this study.