Abstract
Why does Russia seem simultaneously powerful and weak? This article finds the answer in a geopolitical analysis of the structural incentives for and impediments to Russian alliance policy that vary across regions in ways that elude realist, liberal and constructivist explanations of Russia’s conduct. We demonstrate that those explanations miss fundamental changes in Russia’s geographical position after the collapse of the USSR and the emergence of new threats and opportunities. We model the three strategic environments in which Russia acts: its immediate post-Soviet neighbourhood; more distant regions of the Eurasian continent, such as the Middle East and East Asia; and the sphere of global security issues. Building on theories of alliance behaviour, we show how the balance of threats in those strategic environments influences Russia’s political and military policies in different regions in ways not captured by dominant theories or the narratives that inform policy debates.
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