Abstract
Runway excursions are the main risk for runway safety: operational protection areas mitigate the effects of events classified as veer-off, overrun, and undershoot. This paper presents a methodology for the quantitative risk assessment of runway veer-off in an international airport whose name will not be revealed for privacy reasons. The proposed methodology is based on similar principles adopted in other aviation risk analyses. The Real Level of Safety (RLS) related to the veer-off accident was calculated through the implementation of a retrospective analysis that permits to define a frequency model, a location model and a consequence model. Instead, Target Level of Safety (TLS) was defined through the risk matrix and acceptability criteria present in the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Safety Management Manual. Finally, the risk of veer-off accidents in the airport under evaluation was determined by using primary data provided by the airport management body. Risk values were calculated in more than 1300 points around the runway and they were used to assess the current level of safety. The authors present a risk map that allows identifying the areas in the strip with the highest risk of a veer-off accident. The obtained results demonstrate that the developed methodology represents a useful tool to define TLS and to assess whether infrastructural and operational modification need to obtain the required level of safety.
Highlights
In the last decades, the issue of Runway Safety has been identified by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) as a priority for achieving global safety in the air transport system, as about half of accidents and serious incidents occurred nearby the runway [1]
From the analysis of data collected in a database available to the authors containing aeronautical events that occurred around the world from 1996 to 2019, about 52% of accidents occurred near the runway, of which 41% of them belong to runway excursions, divided between veer-off and overrun, and most of them occurred during the landing phase (83%)
The most significant source of accidents in the world of aviation is due to events that occur near the runway: runway excursions represent the main risk of runway safety
Summary
The issue of Runway Safety has been identified by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) as a priority for achieving global safety in the air transport system, as about half of accidents and serious incidents occurred nearby the runway [1]. The physical-territorial context and the anthropic development that has occurred over the years have influenced the airport/territory relationship and the potential expansion of infrastructures and/or adaptations of the runway safety areas These highlighted problems are common to most airports worldwide and have led international aviation authorities to consider the possibility of design solutions to manage non-conformities relating to airport infrastructures [7]. Risk of collision with obstacle due to aircraft being laterally off-path or beneath the approach path: 1.00 × 10−7 per approach (ICAO OCP) The implementation of this technique permits to define objectively the level of risk associated to the considered accident; to establish if the infrastructural requirements can satisfy the required safety levels according to the specific data of a given airport; to adopt measures to mitigate the risk in order to bring the event back on acceptable levels of risk tolerance if necessary. It significantly reduces the investments necessary to ensure an equivalent level of safety when a full compliance with the infrastructure requirements prescribed by Standards and Recommended Practices (SARPs) is not possible or feasible
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