Target level of safety for Chinese airspace

Abstract

This article considers the target level of safety (TLS) for Chinese airspace. If collision risk is lower than TLS, we can say the separation minima meet the safety requirements, so the TLS is the safety limit on the flight operation. But there are no regulations on TLS in China by now, hence, it is necessary to judge whether it is fair to apply the TLS proposed by ICAO to evaluating air traffic safety in China. The accidents data of more than 50 years are collected, and we apply the trend extrapolation to predicting the safety level in the future so as to resolve the TLS problem. The resulted showed the safety level in the period from 2010 to 2020 is very close to TLS established by ICAO. The results show the safety level of collision risk in China has reached the international level and it is rational to use TLS of ICAO to assess collision risk.