Abstract
This study estimates the photovoltaic (PV) energy production from the rooftop solar plant of the National Institute of Technology Karnataka (NITK) and the impact of clouds and aerosols on the PV energy production based on earth observation (EO)-related techniques and solar resource modeling. The post-processed satellite remote sensing observations from the INSAT-3D have been used in combination with Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) 1-day forecasts to perform the Indian Solar Irradiance Operational System (INSIOS) simulations. NITK experiences cloudy conditions for a major part of the year that attenuates the solar irradiance available for PV energy production and the aerosols cause performance issues in the PV installations and maintenance. The proposed methodology employs cloud optical thickness (COT) and aerosol optical depth (AOD) to perform the INSIOS simulations and quantify the impact of clouds and aerosols on solar energy potential, quarter-hourly monitoring, forecasting energy production and financial analysis. The irradiance forecast accuracy was evaluated for 15 min, monthly, and seasonal time horizons, and the correlation was found to be 0.82 with most of the percentage difference within 25% for clear-sky conditions. For cloudy conditions, 27% of cases were found to be within ±50% difference of the percentage difference between the INSIOS and silicon irradiance sensor (SIS) irradiance and it was 60% for clear-sky conditions. The proposed methodology is operationally ready and is able to support the rooftop PV energy production management by providing solar irradiance simulations and realistic energy production estimations.
Highlights
There has been an intense promotion of sustainable energy by governments and international organizations focusing on the reduction in the growing emission of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning [1]
We have found the minimum PV energy output during these months and the percentage variation between the maximum and minimum yield was found to be around 49%
Prediction of solar power generation allows this cheaper and freely available energy source to be widely used in developing countries like India where the renewable energy sector remains underdeveloped, without having reliability for grid-integration and affordability for the citizens
Summary
There has been an intense promotion of sustainable energy by governments and international organizations focusing on the reduction in the growing emission of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning [1]. Solar energy supplies are mostly dominated by rooftop technologies having photovoltaic installations that use the solar energy incident on its surface to produce electricity and solar domestic water heating systems to generate thermal energy [27]. As a result, based on the simulation outputs, we compared the simulations with the real radiation and PV energy production values This ‘simulation to reality’ aspect was initially introduced by authors in [37], and with this study, we took it one step further by simulating the shadow effects at the roof-top level for the atmospheric, topographic, and geographical conditions of India.
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