Earth-Observation-Based Estimation and Forecasting of Particulate Matter Impact on Solar Energy in Egypt

Panagiotis Kosmopoulos,Antonis Gkikas,Mohamed El-Khayat,Michael Taylor,Emmanouil Proestakis,Charalampos Kontoes,Stelios Kazadzis,Hesham El-Askary

doi:10.3390/rs10121870

Abstract

This study estimates the impact of dust aerosols on surface solar radiation and solar energy in Egypt based on Earth Observation (EO) related techniques. For this purpose, we exploited the synergy of monthly mean and daily post processed satellite remote sensing observations from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), radiative transfer model (RTM) simulations utilizing machine learning, in conjunction with 1-day forecasts from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS). As cloudy conditions in this region are rare, aerosols in particular dust, are the most common sources of solar irradiance attenuation, causing performance issues in the photovoltaic (PV) and concentrated solar power (CSP) plant installations. The proposed EO-based methodology is based on the solar energy nowcasting system (SENSE) that quantifies the impact of aerosol and dust on solar energy potential by using the aerosol optical depth (AOD) in terms of climatological values and day-to-day monitoring and forecasting variability from MODIS and CAMS, respectively. The forecast accuracy was evaluated at various locations in Egypt with substantial PV and CSP capacity installed and found to be within 5–12% of that obtained from the satellite observations, highlighting the ability to use such modelling approaches for solar energy management and planning (M&P). Particulate matter resulted in attenuation by up to 64–107 kWh/m2 for global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and 192–329 kWh/m2 for direct normal irradiance (DNI) annually. This energy reduction is climatologically distributed between 0.7% and 12.9% in GHI and 2.9% to 41% in DNI with the maximum values observed in spring following the frequent dust activity of Khamaseen. Under extreme dust conditions the AOD is able to exceed 3.5 resulting in daily energy losses of more than 4 kWh/m2 for a 10 MW system. Such reductions are able to cause financial losses that exceed the daily revenue values. This work aims to show EO capabilities and techniques to be incorporated and utilized in solar energy studies and applications in sun-privileged locations with permanent aerosol sources such as Egypt.

Highlights

The various observed and predicted changes in global climate stem from the short-sighted use of fossil fuels as an energy source
Assessing the effect of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) uncertainty mentioned in Section 2.1.1 on the solar energy nowcasting system (SENSE) solar energy output, we found in ASW a range of −3.6 to 1.8% for global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and −12.3 to 5.7% for direct normal irradiance (DNI)
The magnitude of AOD uncertainty mentioned in Section 2.1.1 on the SENSE solar energy output, we found in ASW a rangeReomfot−e S3en.6s. 2t0o181, .180%, x F(OthRePEmERinRuEVsIsEyWmbol corresponds to an underestimation) for GHI an1d5 o−f 2132.3 to

Summary

Introduction

The various observed and predicted changes in global climate stem from the short-sighted use of fossil fuels as an energy source. To mitigate climate change while permitting continued industrial development, it is necessary to make greater use of renewable energy sources as soon as possible [1]. To this direction, renewables currently account for more than 22% of total global electricity generation, of which last year more than 400 GW (32.4%) were produced from solar energy [2]. Given its geographical location, the most important potential source of renewable energy for Egypt is the Sun. A country with high average solar energy potential [5] and a massive land mass, well positioned to benefit from the continued growth in solar power generation [6]. As defined by the recent World Meteorological Organization report on “Aerosol Measurements, Procedures and recommendations” [24], “Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) is the most important aerosol parameter, in terms of climate sensitivity along with well mixed greenhouse gases, for determining the direct radiative effect and forcing”

Objectives

Results

Conclusion