Role of Western Pacific Oceanic variability in the onset of the Bay of Bengal summer monsoon

Abstract

The influence of the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean heat content on the onset of the Bay of Bengal summer monsoon (BOBSM) onset was investigated using atmospheric data from the NCEP and ocean subsurface temperature data from the Japan Metorology Agency (JMA). Results showed that the onset time of the BOBSM is highly related to the tropical Pacific upper ocean heat content (HC), especially in the key region of the western Pacific warm pool (WPWP), during the preceding winter and spring. When the HC anomalies in the WPWP are positive (negative), the onset of the BOBSM is usually early (late). Accompanied by the variation of the convection activity over the WPWP, mainly induced by the underlying ocean temperature anomalies, the Walker circulation becomes stronger or weaker. This enhances or weakens the westerly over the tropical Indian Ocean flowing into the BOB in the boreal spring, which is essential to BOBSM onset. The possible mechanism of influence of cyclonic/anti-cyclonic circulation over the northwestern tropical Pacific on BOBSM onset is also discussed.