How much does heat content of the western tropical Pacific Ocean modulate the South China Sea summer monsoon onset in the last four decades?

Abstract

AbstractThe role of the western tropical Pacific Ocean heat content in the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) onset is investigated in the present paper, by using atmospheric data from NCEP and ocean subsurface temperature data from Japan Meteorology Agency. It is showed from the result that the heat content (HC) of the upper 400 m layer in the western tropical Pacific (WTP), especially in the region of (130°E–150°E, 0°N–14°N) in the last four decades, is a good predictive indicator for the SCSSM onset. Positive (negative) HC anomalies can induce a strong (weak) convection over the WTP, leading to stronger (weaker) Walker circulation and weaker (stronger) western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) in the boreal spring. Consequently, the anomalous westerly (easterly) in the tropical Indian Ocean is favorable (unfavorable) for the airflow into the SCS and for an early (late) WNPSH retreat from the SCS and hence for an early (late) SCSSM onset. It is elucidated that the long‐term trend of SCSSM onset changes its sign around 1993/94 from decline to rise, which is responding and attributed to the WTP HC trend. During the period of 1971–1993, the WTP HC shows a significant decrease trend. In particular, a significant decline trend is observed in the HC difference between the WTP and western tropical Indian Ocean, which causes an easterly trend in the SCS and strengthened WNPSH trend, leading to a late onset trend of SCSSM. The situation is reverse after 1993/94.