Role of Uncertainty and Social Networks on Shadow Evacuation and Non-Compliance Behavior in Hurricanes

Abstract

Shadow evacuation and non-compliance are among undesirable behaviors during hurricane events. Based on a post-Hurricane Matthew household survey, this study aims to understand the combined effects of information source and uncertainty on individual-level evacuate–stay decisions from the Jacksonville, Florida metropolitan area. A random parameter logit model is developed to capture the heterogeneous effects among individuals. The combined effects are substantial and distinct in the two cases and the study reveals several significant findings. First, consistent and sufficient warning information leads to better alignment with recommended actions. Second, larger social networks encourage compliance and induce shadow evacuation. Third, a highly diverse network induces compliance with the recommended actions, and isolated individuals should be provided with more information. Fourth, risk information from traditional media should be clearly delineated between the high-risk and low-risk areas for effective compliance. However, information from social media has a nonsignificant effect.