Role of surface warming in the northward shift of tropical cyclone tracks over the South China Sea in November

Abstract

Tropical cyclones (TCs) formed in the Northwest Pacific Ocean (NWP) can cross the South China Sea (SCS) sometimes. It is found that the TC tracks in the SCS in November are shifted to the north after 1980 compared with those before 1980. Both data analyses and numerical simulations show that the surface warming in the SCS may contribute to this more northward shift. The warming produces a cyclonic atmosphere circulation anomaly in the northwestern SCS and an associated southerly in the central SCS steering the TCs to the north.