Estimating the Predictability Limit of Tropical Cyclone Tracks over the Western North Pacific Using Observational Data

Abstract

In this study, the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent (NLLE) approach was used to quantitatively determine the predictability limit of tropical cyclone (TC) tracks based on observed TC track data obtained from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. The results show that the predictability limit of all TC tracks over the whole western North Pacific (WNP) basin is about 102 h, and the average lifetime of all TC tracks is about 174 h. The predictability limits of the TC tracks for short-, medium-, and long-lived TCs are approximately 72 h, 120 h, and 132 h, respectively. The predictability limit of the TC tracks depends on the TC genesis location, lifetime, and intensity, and further analysis indicated that these three metrics are closely related. The more intense and longer-lived TCs tend to be generated on the eastern side of the WNP (EWNP), whereas the weaker and shorter-lived TCs tend to form in the west of the WNP (WWNP) and the South China Sea (SCS). The relatively stronger and longer-lived TCs, which are generated mainly in the EWNP, have a longer travel time before they curve northeastwards and hence tend to be more predictable than the relatively weaker and shorter-lived TCs that form in the WWNP region and SCS. Furthermore, the results show that the predictability limit of the TC tracks obtained from the best-track data may be underestimated due to the relatively short observational records currently available. Further work is needed, employing a numerical model to assess the predictability of TC tracks.