Abstract
Livestock production is a socioeconomic linchpin in Mongolia and is affected by large-scale livestock die-offs. Colloquially known as dzuds, these die-offs are driven by anomalous climatic events, including extreme cold temperatures, extended snow cover duration (SCD) and drought. As average temperatures across Mongolia have increased at roughly twice the global rate, we hypothesized that increasing cold season surface melt including soil freeze/thaw (FT), snowmelt, and icing events associated with regional warming have become increasingly important drivers of dzud events as they can reduce pasture productivity and inhibit access to grazing. Here, we use daily brightness temperature (Tb) observations to identify anomalous surface melt and icing events across Mongolia from 2003–2016 and their contribution to dzuds relative to other climatic drivers, including winter temperatures, SCD, and drought. We find a positive relationship between surface melt and icing events and livestock mortality during the fall in southern Mongolia and during the spring in the central and western regions. Further, anomalous seasonal surface melt and icing events explain 17–34% of the total variance in annual livestock mortality, with cold temperatures as the leading contributor of dzuds (20–37%). Summer drought showed the greatest explanatory power (43%) but overall had less statistically significant relationships relative to winter temperatures. Our results indicate that surface melt and icing events will become an increasingly important driver of dzuds as annual temperatures and livestock populations are projected to increase in Mongolia.
Highlights
Livestock production is a central part of Mongolia’s economy [1], whereby the livelihoods of approximately half of the regional human population are connected to various forms of pastoralism [2,3]
As dzud events stem from a complex interaction of multiple climatic forces, we examine the role of anomalous seasonal melt events as a contributor to dzud events in addition to cold temperatures, snow cover duration (SCD), and drought
Winter temperatures and summer normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were anomalously low in 2010. Each of these factors alone promotes mortality, while their combined effects reinforce one another in contributing to the dramatic livestock losses in 2010. These results suggest that the most severe dzud events in Mongolia are a potent combination of cold winter temperatures, summer drought, and both enhanced snow duration and melt events
Summary
Livestock production is a central part of Mongolia’s economy [1], whereby the livelihoods of approximately half of the regional human population are connected to various forms of pastoralism [2,3]. Mongolia’s large livestock population and its role as a national economic driver, enhances vulnerability to even small climatic fluctuations that can result in large annual livestock die-offs. Dzud events played an important role in regulating livestock populations [4]. The intensity and frequency of dzud events have increased with growing livestock populations, reduced rangeland management, and accelerated climate change [5]. The largest recorded dzud event in the modern era occurred in 2010, where 8–10 million livestock perished in a single year [6,7]. The 2010 dzud was preceded by three consecutive dzuds from 1999–2002 that resulted in the loss of 10–20 million livestock [8]
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