Role of Fuel Carbon Intensity in Achieving 2050 Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goals within the Light-Duty Vehicle Sector

Abstract

Recent U.S. climate change policy developments include aggressive proposals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, including cap-and-trade legislation with a goal of an 83% reduction below 2005 levels by 2050. This study examines behavioral and technological changes required to achieve this reduction within the light-duty vehicle (LDV) sector. Under this "fair share" sectoral assumption, aggressive near-term actions are necessary in three areas: vehicle miles traveled (VMT), vehicle fuel economy (FE), and fuel carbon intensity (FCI). Two generic scenarios demonstrate the important role of FCI in meeting the 2050 goal. The first scenario allows deep reductions in FCI to compensate for relatively modest FE improvements and VMT reductions. The second scenario assumes optimistic improvements in FE, relatively large reductions in VMT and less aggressive FCI reductions. Each generic scenario is expanded into three illustrative scenarios to explore the theoretical implications of meeting the 2050 goal by relying exclusively on biofuels and hybrid vehicles, biofuels and plug-in hybrid vehicles, or hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles. These scenarios inform a discussion of resource limitations, technology development and deployment challenges, and policy goals required to meet the 2050 GHG goal for LDVs.