Robustness-Based Evaluation of GHG Emissions and Energy Use at Neighborhood Level

Abstract

Evaluating neighborhood performance is crucial for achieving long-term zero-carbon goals, enabling efficient energy, cost, and resource sharing among buildings. This task requires balancing multiple criteria and managing uncertainties, emphasizing the importance of performance robustness alongside high performance. This article introduces a flexible multi-criteria approach for evaluating neighborhood performance, focusing on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy use across different life cycle stages. Flytårnet, a Norwegian neighborhood with zero-emission ambitions, serves as a case study. The methodology incorporates the T-robust method, an established robustness-based approach, to select high-performance, resilient neighborhood designs under various uncertainties. Results indicate that when assessing buildings as key components and considering energy delivered during the operational phase, including photovoltaic generation, the supplied energy ranges from 25 to 80 kWh/m2/year. Over a 60-year period, life cycle GHG emissions span from 4 to 12 kg CO2-eq./m2/year, accounting for uncertainties and encompassing material production and replacement, as well as energy consumption and generation. However, the optimal design choice varies based on whether life cycle stages beyond the use stage are considered. This research provides valuable insights for decision-makers and designers seeking effective neighborhood designs in early-stage planning, considering diverse and conflicting performance criteria to achieve zero-emission goals.