Road Network Capacity Reliability Based on Traveler's Route Choice Behavior

Abstract

As one of the most important indexes of road network performance, network capacity reliability can be used in the analysis of the uncertainty and randomness of the network. In order to analyze the impact of a traveler's route choice behavior with different preference on network capacity reliability, a bi-level programming model of network capacity reliability was proposed. The lower programming model was an integrated transportation network equilibrium model with the consideration of the elastic demand and the generalized travel cost including the expected travel time, variable travel time and travel time reliability. The preference of traveler's route choice behavior was reflected by the weights of the various parts of the generalized cost function and other parameters. Iterative method and Monte Carlo simulation was used to calculate the model and a numerical example with a small network was provided to demonstrate the application of the model. The results show that a traveler's route choice behavior with different preferences has a great effect on the road network capacity reliability, which may provide a basis for road network planning, design and maintenance.