Road density as a proxy for population density in regional-scale risk modeling

Abstract

This paper examines the use of road network data as a proxy for interpreting population density, which is of use in regional-scale qualitative risk assessment for natural hazards. Comparison of available road network and population data at various scales in Ontario and Quebec yields a best-fit relationship of DP = 28 DR2. Analysis of available high-resolution topographic data for the Caribbean island nation of Saint Lucia suggests similar power law trends, with expected population density in Saint Lucia roughly half that of Canada for the same road density. Together, these findings suggest that DP ~ 10–30 DR2 may represent a useful range broadly applicable for a wide variety of geographic, climactic and socioeconomic settings. The Canadian relationship has been used to generate a population density model for the lowlands of eastern Ontario and southern Quebec, and this model has been compared with the spatial distribution of seismic hazard to develop a qualitative seismic risk map. The seismic risk map, presented primarily for illustrative purposes, shows elevated seismic risk in urban centers in the study area, and along a predominantly rural area east of Quebec City on both shores of the Saint Lawrence River.