A framework for assessing the seismic risk map of Italy and developing a sustainable risk reduction program

Abstract

This work proposes a framework for the development of seismic risk maps at the nationwide scale. The seismic risk map is computed taking into account a seismogenic model of the analyzed area, and properly characterizing vulnerability and exposure of an asset of interest. A risk-targeted indicator named Municipal Expected Annual Loss (MEAL) is introduced and used as suitable metric for the development of the map, and for the subsequent seismic risk rating. The framework is then applied to show its usefulness in order to derive the seismic risk map of Italy considering the residential building stock as asset of interest. The proposed scientific approach for mapping seismic risk can be further used to develop a seismic risk reduction program and then evaluating its financial sustainability. The final part of the paper shows therefore a hypothetical seismic risk reduction program for the Italian residential building stock, estimating costs, benefits, and time-intervals required to guarantee its financial sustainability with the introduction of different taxation scenarios.